Visceral Leishmaniasis: temporal and spatial distribution in Fortaleza, Ceará State, Brazil, 2007-2017

Abstract

Objective. To analyze the temporal trend and describe the spatial distribution of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) in Fortaleza from 2007 to 2017. Methods. Ecological study using segmented temporal regression and spatial distribution. Results. Between 2007-2017, 1,660 new cases and 97 deaths were confirmed. The incidence was ascending (Annual Percent Change (APC)=8.7% – 95%CI -3.3;34.1), but descending mortality and lethality: APC=-25.9 (95%CI -48.5;-10.6) and APC=-33.0 (95%CI -53.7;-17.6), respectively. From 2010-2015 the incidence decreased (APC=-15.8 – 95%CI – -25.1;-4.0), but mortality (APC=18.7 – 95%CI 9.4;50.6) and lethality (APC=40.1 – 95%CI 22.5;72.0) had an upward trend. In 2015-2017, decreased incidence (APC=-24.6 – 95%CI -36.2;-10.3), and mortality (APC=-44.6 – 95%CI -58.8;-17,6) lethality remained stable (APC=-13.5 – 95%CI -38.7;3.8). High incidence neighborhoods were clustered in the western region, however, mortality and lethality did not present defined spatial patterns. Conclusion. VL is endemic in Fortaleza, although there has been a decline in the last three years studied.