Analysis of Climate Change and Social Behavior: The Increase in Violence in the Dominican Republic 2018-2023

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between climate change, specifically rising temperatures, and social behavior in the Dominican Republic during the period 2018-2023. A retrospective, descriptive, and cross-sectional analysis was conducted using graphs and statistical methods to explore the influence of temperatures on public safety indicators such as homicides, suicides, traffic accidents, drownings, complaints, injuries in violent acts, and accidental homicides.

Temperature data was obtained from international sources such as Our World in Data, while social indicators were sourced from the National Statistics Office (ONE) of the Dominican Republic. Pearson correlation analysis was employed after validating data normality through the Shapiro-Wilk test to evaluate the relationship between heat and violence dynamics.

The results reveal a relationship between rising temperatures and various forms of social violence, highlighting a significant increase in traffic accidents, drownings, homicides, suicides, domestic violence, and injuries in violent acts. However, external events like the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 temporarily altered these dynamics, resulting in an overall decrease in violence incidents and mobility, despite high temperatures.

This analysis suggests that climate change and rising heat negatively affect public safety and social well-being, increasing risks associated with violence and accidents. These findings emphasize the need for comprehensive policies that consider both climate change and its impact on health and social security.