O potencial de propagação da Covid-19 e a tomada de decisão governamental: uma análise retrospectiva em Florianópolis, Brasil

Leandro Pereira Garcia; Jefferson Traebert; Alexandra Crispim  Boing; Grazielli Faria Zimmer  Santos; Lucas Alexandre  Pedebôs; Eleonora  d'Orsi; Paulo Inacio  Prado; Maria Amelia de Sousa Mascena  Veras; Giuliano  Boava; Antonio Fernando  Boing

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.993

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Leandro Pereira Garcia Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Florianópolis, Gerência de Inteligência e Informação, Florianópolis, SC, Brasil
Jefferson Traebert Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina, Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciências da Saúde, Florianópolis, SC, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7389-985X
Alexandra Crispim Boing Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Programa de Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Florianópolis,SC, Brasil. Observatório COVID-19 BR.
Grazielli Faria Zimmer Santos Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina, Grupo de Pesquisa em Coprodução do Bem Público: Accountability e Gestão, Florianópolis, SC, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6161-954X
Lucas Alexandre Pedebôs Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Florianópolis, Gerência de Inteligência e Informação, Florianópolis, SC, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6663-352X
Eleonora d'Orsi Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Programa de Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Florianópolis, SC – Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2027-1089
Paulo Inacio Prado Universidade de São Paulo, Instituto de Biologia, São Paulo, SP, Brasil. Observatório COVID-19 BR https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7174-5005
Maria Amelia de Sousa Mascena Veras Faculdade de Ciência Médicas da Santa Casa de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brasil. Observatório COVID-19 BR. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1159-5762
Giuliano Boava Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Departamento de Matemática, Florianópolis, SC – Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3977-3177
Antonio Fernando Boing Programa de Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianópolis, SC – Brasil. Observatório COVID-19 BR. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9331-1550

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.993

Keywords:

Coronavirus Infections, Epidemiology, Decision Making, Government

Abstract

Objective: to analyze the association between the spreading potential of SARS-CoV-2 and the decision-making of the municipal government of Florianópolis (Brazil) regarding social distance. Methods: We analyzed new cases of COVID-19 with nowcasting treatment identified in Florianópolis residents between February 1 and July 14, 2020. Decrees related to COVID-19 published in the Official Gazette of the Municipality between February 1 and July 14, 2020 were also analyzed. Based on the actions proposed in the decrees, it was analyzed whether they relaxed social isolation, increased or maintained existing restrictions, thus creating the Social Distancing Index. Time-dependent reproduction numbers (Rt) for the period of 14 days prior to each decree were calculated. A matrix was constructed associating the classification of each decree and the Rt values, analyzing the consonance or dissonance between the potential dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 and the actions of the decrees. Results: 5,374 cases of COVID-19 and 26 decrees were analyzed. Nine decrees increased measures of social distance, nine maintained them and eight made them more flexible. Of the 26 actions, 9 were consonant and 17 dissonant with the tendency indicated by the Rt. Dissonances were observed in all the decrees that maintained the distance measures or made them more flexible. In the last two months analyzed there was the fastest expansion in the number of new cases and the greatest amount of dissonant decrees. Conclusion: There was an important divergence between municipal measures of social distance with epidemiological indicators at the time of each political decision.

Key-words: Coronavirus Infections. Epidemiology. Decision Making. Government.