WHO ARE THE VOTERS WHO POTENTIALLY ELECTED BOLSONARO AND LULA?

Abstract

Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, from the Workers' Party (PT), was barred from running for the presidency in 2018 by the electoral court. Four years later, Lula won the presidential elections. The common element between both elections is the main opponent: Jair Bolsonaro. The 2022 election was highly contested, and it is possible that so-called "volatile" voters played a decisive role. Those who initially would have voted for Lula if he had been a candidate and later chose Bolsonaro in 2018 may have influenced the outcome of the fiercely contested 2022 election. This study focuses on understanding who these "bolsolulistas" are and examining their attributes and thoughts. We seek answers using post-election survey data from 2018, which investigated both the vote and attitudes towards Lula, in case his candidacy was not legally barred. Additionally, we compare these results with survey data from 2022. We find that bolsolulistas share significant similarities with voters who chose Bolsonaro in both 2018 and 2022, especially regarding religion. However, they are less distrustful of political parties, similar to voters of Lula in 2022. Furthermore, they tend to position themselves ideologically in the center and favor the presence of a strong leader who can solve problems, even if it means acting outside the law.