Preprint / Version 2

Assessing social distancing release strategies in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.595

Keywords:

Social distancing, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Compartmental models

Abstract

In this technical note we discuss some measures to release social distancing and their impacts in the epidemiological sense in order to assess the effects on the projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and, in particular, in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The analysis of possible relaxation scenarios for social distancing is a topic of great relevance to aid the estimation of the most appropriate moment for the return to normality in daily life. In this context, we discuss the importance - and possible consequences - of relaxing social distancing at an appropriate time. The results suggest that the adoption of gradual release policies of social distancing is feasible when epidemiological control is assured. On the other hand, in the absence of verification of epidemiological control, both gradual and abrupt relaxation strategies generate a substantial increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths, in addition to evidence of a considerable increase in the time required to eradicate the disease. Therefore, in the scenario where it is not possible to guarantee epidemiological control, social distancing release policies analyzed in this research are not recommended.

Posted

2020-05-28 — Updated on 2020-05-28

Versions

Section

Health Sciences