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Initial analysis of the spatial correlation between the incidence of COVID-19 and human development in the municipalities of the state of Ceará, in Brazil


  • Jacques Antonio Cavalcante Maciel Universidade Federal do Ceará
  • Igor Iuco Castro-Silva Universidade Federal do Ceará
  • Mariana Ramalho de Farias Universidade Federal do Ceará



Coronavirus, SARS virus, Development indicators, Geographic mapping


Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 and its correlation with the municipal human development index (MHDI) of the municipalities of Ceará. Methods: This is an ecological study with data recovered from the 15th to the 19th epidemiological week of the year 2020 using the MHDI and the COVID-19 incidence coefficient for each municipality as variables. The univariate and the bivariate spatial correlation were analyzed using the TerraView and GeoDa software. Results: The incidence of COVID-19 has spatial dependence with moderate positive correlation and the formation of high-high clusters located in the metropolitan region of Fortaleza and municipalities in the North region. The lowest incidence was a low-low cluster in the South and West regions. There was a positive bivariate correlation between MHDI and the incidence of COVID-19 with the formation of a cluster in the metropolitan region of Fortaleza. Conclusion: The uneven mapping of COVID-19 and its relationship with MHDI in Ceará can contribute with actions for the regional fight against the pandemic. 


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Health Sciences