Boletim COVID-PA: Reports on artificial intelligence-based forecasting to the facing of pandemic COVID-19 in the state of Pará, Brazil
Keywords:COVID-19, Artificial Intelligence, Forecasting, Neural Networks, Decision Making
Objective: Report the university research and extension product denominated ‘Boletim COVID-PA’ which presented projections about the pandemic in the State of Pará, Brazil, with practical, mathematically rigorous and computationally efficient approaches. Methods: The artificial intelligence technique known as Artificial Neural Networks was used to generate thirteen bulletins with short-term projections based on historical data from the State Department of Public Health system. Results: After eight months of projections, the technique generated reliable results with an average accuracy of 97% (147 days observed) for confirmed cases, 96% (161 observed days) for deaths and 86% (72 days observed) for occupancy of intensive care unit beds. Conclusion: These bulletins have become a useful tool for decision making by public managers, assisting in reallocating hospital resources and optimizing COVID-19 control strategies for the various regions of the State of Pará.
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Copyright (c) 2021 Gilberto Nerino de Souza Jr., Marcus de Barros Braga, Luana Lorena Silva Rodrigues, Rafael da Silva Fernandes, Rommel Thiago Jucá Ramos, Adriana Ribeiro Carneiro, Silvana Rossy de Brito, Cícero Jorge Fonseca Dolácio, Ivaldo da Silva Tavares Jr., Fernando Napoleão Noronha, Raphael Rodrigues Pinheiro, Hugo Alex Carneiro Diniz, Marcel do Nascimento Botelho, Antonio Carlos Rosário Vallinoto, Jonas Elias Castro da Rocha
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.