Preprint / Version 1

Space-time analysis of the first year of COVID-19 pandemic in Rio de Janeiro municipality


  • Cleber Vinicuis Brito dos Santos UERJ - Instituto de Medicina Social
  • João Roberto Cavalcante UERJ - Instituto de Medicina Social
  • Paula Cristina Pungartnik UFRJ - Instituto de Estudos em Saúde Coletiva
  • Raphael Mendonça Guimarães Fundação Oswaldo Cruz



COVID-19, SARS CoV-2, Spatial Analysis, Epidemiology, Brazil


Objective: To describe the space-time evolution of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in the Rio de Janeiro municipality during the first year of the pandemic. Methods: We carried out an ecological study whose units of analysis were the neighborhoods of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. We calculated Incidence and mortality rates, excess risk, global Moran index (Moran's I), Local indicator of spatial association (LISA), standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for neighborhoods in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. Results: Over the first year, City of Rio de Janeiro registries included 204,888 cases and 19,017 deaths due to COVID-19. During the first three months of the pandemic, the municipality show higher incidence rates than the State of Rio de Janeiro and Brazil and higher mortality rates than the State of Rio de Janeiro and Brazil from May 2020 to February 2021. Bonsucesso was the neighborhood with the highest incidence and mortality rates, and throughout the communities and months, there is no synchrony between the worst moments of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: We emphasize the need to implement more rigid control and prevention measures, increase case detection, and accelerate the COVID-19 immunization campaign.


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