Germany's 'coronavirus anomaly': Statistical evidence that early mass testing leads to low mortality rates

Giovani L. Vasconcelos; Antônio M. S. Macêdo; Inês C. L.  Souza; Raydonal Ospina; Francisco A. G.  Almeida; Gerson C.  Duarte-Filho; Christian Holm

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.212

article.authors6966cc02e24fe

Giovani L. Vasconcelos Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, PR https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6609-5960
Antônio M. S. Macêdo Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE
Inês C. L. Souza 3Hippos Consultoria de Dados, Curitiba, PR https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7758-8269
Raydonal Ospina Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9884-9090
Francisco A. G. Almeida Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristovão, SE
Gerson C. Duarte-Filho Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristovão, SE https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4975-4981
Christian Holm Universität Stuttgart, Institut für Computerphysik, Stuttgart, Germany

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.212

Palavras-chave:

Covid-19, low mortality rates, anomaly, Germany

Resumo

In this note, we present a statistical analysis of the mortality rates of COVID-19 for several selected European countries. We compare the countries' mortality rates with their respective number of tests as a function of the time since the first death. Our analysis shows that countries that either delayed mass testing, such as Italy, or have not fully adopted it, such as France and the UK, have had much higher mortality rates than Germany, which has adopted a policy of wide and early testing. Conversely, countries that have followed Germany's example, such as Portugal, have so far had comparatively low mortality rates.