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Dynamic mapping of the probability of infestation by arbovirus urban vectors in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, 2016-2017




Aedes, Disease Vectors, Ecological Studies, Epidemiological Surveillance, Theoretical Models


Objective: To compare the official mapping with the probabilistic mapping of infestation by Aedes spp. in Rio Grande do Sul municipalities, Brazil. Methods: Ecological study analyzing samples of mosquito breeding sites collected in 2016-2017; official classification was obtained from epidemiological reports, and infestation per municipality and week was estimated by fitting a dynamic site-occupancy model to data from municipal epidemiological surveillance. Results: 187,245 samples collected in 473 municipalities returned 10,648 detections of Aedes aegypti, and 8,414 detections of Aedes albopictus.; official mapping agrees with the probabilistic mapping in municipalities from northwestern and western regions. These mappings disagree in eastern, center, northeastern and southern regions, revealing municipalities not officially infested with high infestation probability and notification of arbovirus. Conclusion: While official classification correctly identifies critically infested municipalities from northwestern and western regions, it did not identify infestation in municipalities with false negative errors and where infestation varies over time.


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