Prudential management of Brazilian banks: key variables under Basel III

Resumo

This study examines the determinants of capital adequacy in Brazilian commercial banks, focusing on how internal performance indicators from the CAMELS (capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, liquidity, and sensitivity to market risk) framework and macroeconomic conditions shape prudential capital buffers under Basel III. Although capital regulation plays a central role in emerging economies, the literature offers limited evidence on the joint influence of CAMELS dimensions and macroeconomic factors on banks’ excess capital positions. Moreover, few studies explicitly address the dynamic and endogenous nature of prudential capital adjustment, particularly in the Brazilian context. Understanding the drivers of banks’ capital buffers provides insights into the effectiveness of Basel III in strengthening financial resilience and informs regulatory debates in developing economies. Quarterly panel data from 15 Brazilian commercial banks from 2018 to 2024 are analyzed using traditional panel estimators and dynamic approaches based on difference and system generalized method of moments, allowing for endogeneity, persistence, and intertemporal adjustment. The dependent variable is defined as the difference between the observed capital adequacy ratio and the regulatory minimum. The results indicate that asset quality and profitability positively affect capital buffers, while leverage and inflation exert robust negative effects. Other factors, including liquidity, market risk sensitivity, bank size, and economic growth, display specification-sensitive results, highlighting the role of dynamic adjustment and feedback effects. Overall, capital buffers reflect a prudential and dynamic process rather than purely contemporaneous decisions. The findings contribute to the prudential regulation literature and provide insights for regulators and bank managers regarding risk-based supervision and capital planning in emerging economies.