DOI of the published article https://doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017
The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: the Series of Projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the Ensuing Evolution, from May to August, 2020
Keywords:COVID-19, Transmission, Forecasting, Pandemics, Brazil, Time Series Studies
Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: We describe projections from May to August, 2020 for Brazil and selected states, comparing them with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The average error in projections of the cumulative number of deaths in 2, 4 and 6 weeks was 13%, 18% and 22%. Conclusion: IHME short, and medium term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. After presenting a very troublesome course to August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily and slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.
Copyright (c) 2020 Caroline Stein, Ewerton Cousin, Ísis Eloah Machado, Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos, Tatiane Moraes de Sousa, Maria Inês Schmidt, John Gallagher, Mohsen Naghavi, Bruce B. Duncan, Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.