A pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: a série de projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada, maio – agosto de 2020

Caroline  Stein; Ewerton  Cousin; Ísis Eloah  Machado; Valéria Maria de Azeredo  Passos; Tatiane Moraes de  Sousa; Maria Inês  Schmidt; John  Gallagher; Mohsen  Naghavi; Bruce B.  Duncan; Mariana Santos  Felisbino-Mendes

doi:10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017

##article.authors##

Caroline Stein Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4777-1630
Ewerton Cousin University of Washington https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3455-8865
Ísis Eloah Machado Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5321-5708
Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Tatiane Moraes de Sousa Fundação Instituto Oswaldo Cruz https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4359-465X
Maria Inês Schmidt Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
John Gallagher University of Washington
Mohsen Naghavi University of Washington
Bruce B. Duncan Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7491-2630
Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5321-5708

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017

Keywords:

COVID-19, Transmission, Forecasting, Pandemics, Brazil, Time Series Studies

Abstract

Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: We describe projections from May to August, 2020 for Brazil and selected states, comparing them with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The average error in projections of the cumulative number of deaths in 2, 4 and 6 weeks was 13%, 18% and 22%. Conclusion: IHME short, and medium term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. After presenting a very troublesome course to August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily and slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.