Preprint has been published in a journal as an article
DOI of the published article https://doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017
Preprint / Version 1

The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: the Series of Projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the Ensuing Evolution, from May to August, 2020

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017

Keywords:

COVID-19, Transmission, Forecasting, Pandemics, Brazil, Time Series Studies

Abstract

Objective: To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications. Methods: We describe projections from May to August, 2020 for Brazil and selected states, comparing them with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths. Results: The pandemic is projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The average error in projections of the cumulative number of deaths in 2, 4 and 6 weeks was 13%, 18% and 22%. Conclusion: IHME short, and medium term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate information to inform health planners, elected officials, and society. After presenting a very troublesome course to August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily and slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.

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Posted

2020-12-01

Section

Health Sciences