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ASSOCIATED FACTORS WITH INCREASED RISK OF DEATH FROM COVID-19: A SURVIVAL ANALYSIS BASED ON CONFIRMED CASES

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1175

Keywords:

COVID-19, Survival Analysis, Coronavirus Infections

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To perform a survival analysis of individuals diagnosed with covid-19 identified by health information systems, analyzing the factors associated with the highest risk of death. METHODS: Survival analysis of individuals notified with covid-19 in the state of Rio Grande do Norte using data from the Health Information Systems for the surveillance of cases of and deaths by covid-19. The dependent variable was the time to the outcome occurrence. The independent variables were sex, self-reported skin color, age group, living in the capital and the presence of comorbidities. For data analysis was used the Kaplan-Meyer method and Cox-time-dependent Regression Model for multivariate analysis, by the covariable “time since the event notification recorded in days”. RESULTS: Highest risk of death were observed  in individuals aged 80 years or older (HR = 8.06; p <0.001), male (HR = 1.45, p <0.001), non-white skin color (HR = 1.13; p <0.033) or without information (HR = 1.29; p <0.001), who have comorbidities (HR = 10.44; p <0.001) or that the presence of comorbidities was not reported (HR = 10.87; p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: From the identification of the profile of patients with a higher risk of death through the identification by the health system, specific strategies of health care must be taken to prevent the evolution to death in these cases. These variables are recommended to organize the supply and availability of health care services.

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Posted

2020-09-03

Section

Health Sciences