Analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamics of incidence, mortality and test rates (rapid and RT-PCR) of COVID-19 in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Milton José da  Silva-Júnior; Kaio Saramago  Mendonça; Caio Augusto de Lima; Priscilla Larissa Silva  Pires; Tatiany  Calegari; Stefan Oliveira

doi:10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1077

##article.authors##

Milton José da Silva-Júnior Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5915-5662
Kaio Saramago Mendonça Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4451-8728
Caio Augusto de Lima Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0130-6998
Priscilla Larissa Silva Pires Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3450-5061
Tatiany Calegari Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7917-043X
Stefan Oliveira Universidade Federal de Uberlândia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5493-2765

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.1077

Keywords:

Coronavirus Infections, Epidemiology, COVID-19, Immunologic Tests, Pandemics, Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction

Resumo

Introduction: A novel type of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is responsible for an unprecedented pandemic with profound socioeconomic consequences. Owing to its recent discovery, the virus that emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019 still represents a great unknown to researchers. This study aims to establish the spatio-temporal associations of the incidence, mortality, and the rate of both rapid and RT-PCR tests in Minas Gerais. Methods: This is a quantitative analysis of secondary data based on a cross-sectional research design. Incidence, mortality, date of the first notification of COVID-19 and number of rapid and RT-PCR tests were obtained from the sources: Laboratory Environment Manager, e-SUS epidemiological surveillance platform and SES-MG. Pearson coefficient for correlation was calculated to establish the level of association between the relevant data. Descriptive statistical procedures were used to provide a comprehensive understanding of the distribution of incidence, mortality and test rates in the territory. Results: Positive correlations were found between the rate of rapid tests and incidence; rate of RT-PCR tests and incidence/mortality. At the municipal level, incidence, mortality, rate of rapid tests and RT-PCR revealed a negative correlation with days elapsed since the First Notified Case. The same effect occurs, at different intensities, at the level of health macro-regions. Discussion: The heterogeneity of the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 in the territory of Minas Gerais, as well as the rate of tests (rapid and RT-PCR) may be caused, in part, due to the different dates of introduction of the virus in the municipalities/macro-regions. It is speculated that this phenomenon occurs due to the dynamics of regional and inter-regional flows of people.